Makwan Amirkhani vs Lerone Murphy Breakdown | Prediction + Bets


So Amirkhani vs Lerone Murphy he’s it’s not a great striker. He always says he’s working on his boxing, but it’s just always been trash. Uh he’s a southpaw likes to check right, hook, um and then angles off to his right and that’s what he throws 99 of the time, i’m exaggerating, but it gets very predictable, uh yeah. He turns his head when he’s on the check right hook, so he squares his jaw pretty much asking to be ko’d by a straight punch which lauren murphy loves to throw uh and amir khan.

He stays in range after he throws a combination in the pocket. Always you know, if he’s not on the check right hook, he’s done a combination and he uh he stays in the pocket. Doesn’T take a stick uh. It doesn’t take a step back and um if you’re gon na throw a one two at him, he just he’ll. Take a step back to avoid the strike and then re-enter range – and you know that’s very predictable, generally just very predictable on the feet in my opinion, and he has his hands low at all ranges.

He lets his opponents get in the distance quite quickly. I mean not quite quickly, but quite uh with you know, impunity, basically, because if the check right hook misses he you’re in you’re in his range and you can just you can do what you want really unless he clinches up and uh. I guess that’s why people give him a little bit of respect on the feet, because if i was versing him, i would just avoid the check right hook and then i’d get in range and just start throwing hooks because he’s very vulnerable in that position. Fuller murphy he’s frequently switching his stance. There’S a lot of faints good control of range he’s predominantly throwing his uh one two likes the one, two for sure, predominantly throwing a variation of a one two either a step in one two.

It does cover a lot of distance when it commits to the one two um, but yeah mixes it up a bit. You know one twos to the body or just the jab to the body and then two up top, i feel, like amir khan, is probably going to lower his hands to um, protect his body um, as he is prone to do, and then you know a murphy. Will go up top with the with the straight right and probably clean his clock eventually uh if it does stay on the feet, but amir khan is he’s a good wrestler he’s got nice chain wrestling a single leg run the pipe. If you can’t get that he’ll. Just grab the body lock: mat returns body lock outside leg trips, uh he’s got nice trips from you know.

From that body, lock position and and uh yeah. He doesn’t set up a lot of his takedowns on the back foot. If he’s on the front foot he’s using the right hook to set up his takedowns, but he is quite good on top, i guess or just in not on top i’d say he just mostly just sits in the guard on top, doesn’t really look to pass or Do much damage really uh he’s more dangerous in scrambles, i feel like that’s, where he’s best he’s uh, definitely more of a catch you and a scramble type of guy he’s got a very nice anaconda choke uh when the opponent’s turtling up. So, what’s his name, uh lauren murphy doesn’t need to watch out for that, especially mine is his manners when he’s turtled up or if he gets in that position. Uh lauren, murphy’s wrestling’s, okay!

No! No! It’S not it’s subpar for sure um! Most of his takedowns do come from the body lock entry. I don’t think he’s gon na be hitting any on amir khani.

I think the uh, the trips that he goes for he’s most likely going to get reversed, or you know, he’s very sloppy with his takedowns. In my opinion, he’s goes for like lateral drops or something like that. I think seem to remember. He goes through a lot of lateral drops and he gets reversed and ends up in bottom position or just gets finessed by butterfly hooks as soon as he gets the opponent down uh. But his grounder pound is quite nice.

You know right bombs, grounded pound. Obviously, he’s got a bit of raw power, so that does help him out a lot with his ground pound and these guys win fights so for murphy’s, well-rounded for amir khan nice chain wrestling how these guys lose fights for murphy, subpart takedown defense uh for amir khani Suspect chin and he gasses after one and a half rounds in a high-paced fight for lauren murphy. The path to victory is to take the front foot, get amir connie on the back foot and make him telegraph all of his takedowns, because that’s what he does, as we mentioned before, uh look to smash the body really where at that gas tank and look for Low calf kicks in southpaw, he doesn’t check low calf kicks when uh well at all. So if you go south poor smash that low calf, if you’re an orthodox smash the body uh no takedowns for you lauren murphy, because i don’t think you do, i don’t think you want to engage them on the mat at all on this one. If you knock them down or whatever call them back up for amir khani, i think the wrestling heavy attack don’t even bother wasting your energy with boxing, because i feel like you’re getting it knocked out in the feet.

Uh make your intentions clear from the get-go. Just like you did in the shane burgos fight how to see the fight going so on the feet. I think the bodywork of lauren murphy is gon na, be huge. Uh can absolutely see him ending it uh by tko, maybe with body shots for sure. I think the body is is wide open for him and he likes going to the body uh honestly on the feet.

He doesn’t have too much to fear mac one. He throws like two techniques and both have just little to no power uh. I don’t know why. Anyone respects his his striking. They should really just get in the pocket dodge that check right hook and then just beat him up honestly uh murphy.

He can do what he likes on the feet and i think he’ll, eventually ko mack one, no just with the tendencies mack one has and lately like mac one’s just looked worse and worse in his previous fights. I thought he won his last fight, even though he did lose it by decision. I thought he won. It was a close still like it was a close fight with a guy who’s borderline ufc level. So i understand the sentiment towards him and why he’s such a wide underdog, but still the guy’s, a very good wrestler for seven and a half minutes, maybe even less but he’s still a good rest up for seven and a half minutes.

And i can see him getting murphy down and controlling him for a good few minutes at the starting portion of this fight. Lauren murphy has, it showed, hasn’t shown great defensive grappling uh, but yeah overall, i’m just not that impressed with lauren murphy, even his striking. I think he’s quite basic on the feet. He’S basically just doing a variation of one. Two good strikers are gon na, get rid of that very quickly.

Uh. Basically, you just slip it or you just move out of the way. Um or you can. You know mix and take down like a reactive double, because you know after he throws the jab most likely if he’s continuing to advance after he throws the jab he’s going to throw on the two after that. So you can time your takedowns from there and i think his wrestling is average at best uh.

I need to see more from him. I know his record’s good, it’s 10-0, but i don’t think he’s very good. I think he’s a huge prospect is what i should say he’s a good fighter he’s just not it’s not a huge prospect, also get the vibe that his chin’s a little fragile like he has good range control, good footwork and he doesn’t get hit much, but when He does get hit. I don’t like the reactions that i see from him and there’s just no way i’m playing what is it -350 on a guy with takedown defense as uh as murphy’s, against a good wrestler like mac one, if mac one habit, if mac one had a tank? I’D probably favor him here slightly, ah so yeah, it is what it is.

We’Ll have a look at the bedding lines all right. So if you guys could like the video that be awesome, really helps out a lot prediction is murphy by ko uh yeah. I think eventually finds the chin. I don’t think should be this much of a favorite, though i think the value’s on amir khan at the moment, i’m probably looking to light. Oh sorry, pre-bet amir khani at this price and then i’ll, potentially hedge or just you know, see what i can get on lauren murphy after round one because generally that’s uh mach one’s best round and he generally expends a ton of energy around one.

So i’ll see what i can get for murphy after round one but yeah pre-fight, i’m looking at the amir khani money line yeah i might as well just play moneyline over that submission line. Yep. That sounds good to me.

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